Are we or aren’t we in a recession?

That’s been the topic of many news stories in the past year. But economists have varying opinions on whether we are, based on the technical definition of a recession.

Investopedia notes that a recession happens when the economy stops growing and begins to contract.¹ And NerdWallet says that it’s generally two consecutive quarters of a slowing economic activity.²

But despite historic inflation in the past year, and several interest rate increases by the Federal reserve, due to the strong labor market over the past year (though that is starting to slow down), we still technically aren’t in a recession. Some economists say we are headed for a soft landing, which happens when economic growth slows, but doesn’t decline. Other economists say we are in a rolling recession.

Forbes reports that a rolling recession is one that doesn’t have the same impact on the entire economy, but rather it affects different market sectors at different times.³ Some sectors might be spared altogether.

The Conference Board predicts that we may soon be in a recession. They predict we will have three quarters of negative economic growth starting in the first quarter of 2023 but predict the downturn will be mild and brief. The good news is they also predict a rebound in 2024.⁴

But the definition of what’s happening isn’t as important as the fact that we are here to help you navigate it.

Getting Ready for a Recession

Whether it’s a rolling recession or the type of recession that hits the entire economy all at once, there are steps we can take to prepare.

The good news is we’ve already begun taking those steps together. We’ve talked about it and planned for it in case it happens. But it’s always a good idea to have a refresher on some of the basics:⁵

• Stock your emergency fund. Get your budget in order and figure out what you spend per month so that way you can put enough away in your emergency fund to cover three to six months’ worth of expenses.
• Focus on paying down debt. We can discuss whether it would be best for you to pay down high-interest debt or tackle the smaller balances first, but either way, prioritize paying down your debt.
• Reevaluate your expenditures. See where you can get creative with saving. We can explore this together, but take time to look at your insurance policies, utilities, and other cell phone bills to see if you can save in any area.
• Refresh your resume. It’s always a good idea to refresh your resume and get it professionally edited. Layoffs have been impacting thousands of workers since late last year and Investopedia reports that no sector is safe. It’s just best to be prepared.⁶

We can’t predict what’s going to happen in the future, but we can prepare for various outcomes. If you’re feeling fearful or want to talk to us about any of this, give us a call at 419-872-0204 and let’s work on our plan.

Citizen Advisory Group is a comprehensive financial services firm that helps Northwest Ohio and Southeast Michigan’s soon to be retired and retired residents effectively plan for and prepare for life’s greatest journey. In addition to helping clients with their finances, Citizen Advisory Group offers monthly health and wellness events.

Please call 419-872-0204 for a complimentary consultation to review your individual situation.

Investment advisory and financial planning services offered through Advisory Alpha, LLC, an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Insurance, Consulting, and Education services offered through Citizen Advisory Group. Citizen Advisory Group is a separate and unaffiliated entity from Advisory Alpha.

Sources

1 https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/recession.asp 

2 https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/finance/are-we-in-a-recession

3 https://www.forbes.com/sites/qai/2023/02/14/what-is-a-rolling-recession/?sh=21ef2d62535f

4 https://www.conference-board.org/research/us-forecast

5 https://time.com/6240221/a-recession-is-widely-expected-heres-how-to-prepare/

6 https://www.investopedia.com/biggest-layoffs-2023-7096389